Tonight from West Point, Obama will offer his prescription for Afghanistan. On the data-driven driven left, there's lots of dissatisfaction and ennui. The pundits of the Slate Political Gabfest (which I love) moped and moped about Obama's 'McKinsey War' and its convoluted, mixed-message approach: that we want metrics for success, that we are committed to the region, and that if our benchmarks aren't met we'll leave.
Obviously Obama inherited a difficult situation. Recognizing that there's no perfect solution to a problem-set like Afghanistan, I'm prepared to accept Obama's decision to temporarily escalate as appropriate, and to greet it with the enthusiasm due any well-reasoned high-stakes decision.
Often the Washington press corps is criticized for focusing on the 'optics' and 'strategic considerations' of policy decisions, at the expense of scrutinizing the merits. In this case, I think the press is ignoring the layers of strategic interests tied into Afghanistan: ours and our Allies', the Afghan people's, Pakistan's, and of course our enemies', alongside Obama's own political capital, and the implications his move here has for his larger agenda. Underlying that is the anxious relationship long extant between Democratic presidents and the military.
In my view, a limited, temporary escalation is a defensive chess move, albeit one with offense-ive characteristics. What it won't do is rapidly resolve the situation in Afghanistan. What it aims to do is recalibrate, if not reset, US policy in the region, setting the stage for more decisive options in the future - without worsening the instability in Pakistan, without giving Republicans loud talking points to discredit Obama on defense, without wholly alienating the base. Meanwhile, General McChrystal's seemingly well-considered strategy will be partially funded and given a chance, and options for various eventualities in the theater refined and expanded. (Sounding neat on paper, it will be messy in practice, but messy is the state of our world)
In this respect, Obama's decision on Afghanistan resembles his recent trip to China: a seemingly inauspicious event that functions as part of a larger, long-term plan, the specifics of which are not necessarily established, but which aims to be locally responsive and fact-based.
I think I'll like it, not because it will bring about an elegant outcome, but because I believe it is the first step in a reasonable way forward.